NPR talks with *Wall Street Journal* Detroit Bureau Chief Joseph White about hybrids (specifically the Prius) vs. his current Subaru. The verdict is that unless gas prices really skyrocket, the savings just don't compute. I don't quite agree with that, and my numbers in the extended entry show why.
Newsweek has also done a story on the reluctance of Americans to turn in their SUVs for hybrids. One of the really interesting statements made is by the research group J.D. Power: *By the end of this decade, J.D. Power predicts hybrids will account for less than 4 percent of total auto sales.* Presently, hybrids account for 1.4 percent of total auto sales.
*Next year's blingy new Cadillac Escalade will get 20mpg-"what GM hopes is the new magic number for social acceptability.*
In my mind, the greatest thing about hybrids is that at city speeds, they reign supreme, which is where the most wasteful use of gasoline is -- take the Lexus RX400h, which does 31 mpg city and 27 mpg highway, which is is just phenomenal for a SUV, since mileage wise it's very close to a typical economy sedan.
I like hybrids. I wish more cars had a hybrid drivetrain. But the Prius and the RX400h just aren't the right cars for me.
Hybrid vs. Celica numbers in the extended entry.
I did these numbers on my Celica (24-25 city/31-33 highway) vs. Prius(60 city/51 highway)) about a year ago when I was doing the San Jose to Redwood City Commute (58 miles round trip) 4 of that 58 is city driving, while the remainder is all at highway speeds (though I don't really know if I want to claim the stretch of 101 near Menlo Park/Palo Alto as highway, since mostly it is near city driving speeds)
54 miles x 5 days a week x 50 weeks = 13,500 miles on the highway portion of the commute.
4 miles x 5 x 50 weeks = 1,000 miles on the city portion of the commute
(my usage mileage averages out to 23,250 a year, so I assume the rest of that is recreational driving, which would be 80% highway, 20% city)
7000 miles recreation driving (highway)
1750 miles recreation driving (city)
**Gallons of gas consumed**
Celica: 640.63 gallons (highway) + 112.25 (city) = 645.11 gallons premium = 709.621gallons regular
Prius: 402 gallons (highway) + 46 gallons (city) = 448 gallons regular
Since Premium Gas is 10% higher in cost than regular, I converted the gas to regular equivalency in order to make a comparison a little bit easier. (It's about 37% less gas using a Prius than the Celica)
So roughly, changing cars would result in 262 gallons saved per year, or about
At $3 a gallon for gasoline, that equates to $786 a year.
At $3.25 a gallon, 851.50
At $3.50 a gallon, 917.00
At $3.75 a gallon, 982.50
At $4 a gallon, 1048.00
You pay about $5000 more for a hybrid than a regular gasoline car. If you have a long commute like me, it may well be worth it, as it pays for that premium in 5 or 6 years. If you drive signifigantly less than I do (which is most people), then it takes longer to recoup that cost. If you have a car that does worse gas mileage than my Celica (which is likely), then the cost of that premium is recouped even quicker. The smart economical thing to do, if you are shopping for a new car (and planning on retaining the car for at least five years) is to purchase the hybrid.
The EPA MPG is off on the Prius however, as my own experience with the Prius showed that it did about 45 mpg average vs the expected 60/51 numbers.
My current commute is only 17.7 miles each way (4.3 miles city, 13.4 miles highway) which changes the numbers quite a bit.
26.4 miles x 5 days a week x 50 weeks = 6,600 miles on the highway portion of the commute.
8.6 miles x 5 days a week x 50 weeks = 2,150 on the city portion of the commute.
I'll keep the highway and rec numbers the same as before.
7000 miles recreation driving (highway)
1750 miles recreation driving (city)
Celica:
13600 miles highway / 32 = 425 gallons
3900 miles city / 24.5 = 159.2 gallons
Total Gas: 584 x 10% = 642.62 gallons regular
Prius:
13600 miles highway /51 = 266.67 gallons
3900 miles city / 60 = 65 gallons
Total Gas: 331.67 gallons regular
Since the commute has changed to have a higher proportion of city driving, the Prius would be using about 52% of what the Celica consumes. The gas savings is 310.95 gallons a year, which is even more than when I was living in San Jose.
310.95 x 3.00 = 932.85
310.95 x 3.25 = 1010.59
310.95 x 3.50 = 1088.33
310.95 x 3.75 = 1166.06
310.95 x 4.00 = 1243.8
That's some good money, and the savings raise as the gas prices go up (of course, your expenses on gas that you need is going up as well).
i don't know that thinking of economics alone is enough in thinking of hybrids. regardless of whether they save you money or not, they are better for the environment (or am i totally wrong in that? :P)
but simple economics can't be the sole reason behind developing a new technology, i think. the question is.... will it be a better/new solution or not?
5 to 6 years to make up the difference doesn't even count if you finance you car like most people do. Nor does it account for the fact that batteries are expensive and don't last much more the 5 or 6 years (at best). I would be willing to be that if you adjust your math for starting a loan at an additional $5K and throw in the battery replacement, along with all the engine maintaince that both cars have to go through and I suspect you don't make up the difference in 10 years.
Research years ago from major auto design school projects found that the best way to do hybrid is like a train. Diesel electric, where the diesel just runs a generator that powers the electric motor(s). Diesel motors can be setup to be SUPER efficient at a constant RPM (not unlike the rotary motors in a mazda). The problem with diesel electric is americans HATE diesel, and nobody but the europeans knows anything about small diesel motors.
honeyfields: they are slightly better for the environment due to their efficiency but the environmental impact of a prius is about the same as any other modern car because it still uses gasoline. In the long run, hybrids are just an intermediary while we develop a different fuel source.
PQBON:
I didn't bother throwing in the costs for the regular maintenance, because those are costs I would have regardless. Both the Celica and the Prius are manufactured by Toyota and would pretty much have the same maintenance needs and costs associated with them.
The battery and other hybrid components were excluded from my cost analysis because Toyota warranties those parts for 8 years/100,000 miles.
Americans hate diesel, because it's gained a reputation for being dirty and noisy, and while technology in that area has improved, it still doesn't meet California emissions standards. Personally, I'd love to see more diesels in the states because diesel engines can be run on biodiesel and french fry grease.
But as far as gasoline costs go, diesel is still more expensive than premium grade gasoline.